Housing and Google Insight for Search

For Each Case-Shiller City:

  1. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Interest (Google IfS)
    Google Correlate & US Real Estate Interest
  2. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Listings Interest (Google IfS)
    Google Correlate and US Listings Interest
  3. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Property Development Interest (Google IfS)
  4. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Agency Interest (Google IfS)
  5. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Apartments & Rentals Interest (Google IfS)
  6. One-Year Moving Average of Ratio of  "Real-Estate Listing Interest" to " Real-Estate Apartments & Rentals Interest " (Google IfS)
  7. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Commercial & Investment Interest (Google IfS)
  8. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Inspections & Appraisals Interest (Google IfS)
  9. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Time-Share & Vacation Property Interest (Google IfS)
  10. One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Property Management Interest (Google IfS)
  11. Annual  GDP-per-Capita  (BEA Regional)
  12. Monthly Unemployment Rate (BLS Regional)
  13. One-Year Moving Average of Monthly Number of Houses Sold (Zillow) 


Listings Interest & # Of Houses Sold - in general, either google real-estate listings interest or #of Houses solds dynamics tends to precede dynamics in CS housing price index. But sometimes listings interest moves precede #of houses sold, and sometimes #of houses sold moves precede listings interest. 
Cities in which Google Listings Interest Precedes moves in #of Houses Sold
    • Dallas
    • Charlette (for a while, then they move one-for-one -- follows very closely)
    • Atlanta

Cities in which 
#of Houses Sold Precedes moves in Google Listings Interest 
    • Tampa (only slightly preceding)
    • Miami (only slightly preceding)
    • Seattle
    • Portland
    • Las Vegas
    • Minneapolis 
    • Boston
    • Chicago
    • Washington DC
    • San Francisco (but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down) 
    • San Deigo  (but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
    • Los Angeles   (but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
    • Phoenix   (but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
Not really clear
    • Cleveland
    • New York
    • Denver

Summer 2008 to Summer 2009 Search Bump - Many cities had a bump-up in Real-Estate listings not linked to CS house prices. Something happen then? a governemnt program to sell houses? --this seems to be correlated with "52W-MW #of houses sold" --Google search seems to precede # of houses sold by some months. 
Cities wtih this bump:
  • LA, 


Odd Sequencing - lack of interest into Prop Dev, Com & Investment (and a few others) precede drops in housing prices. But likely, rises in housing prices will precede rises in Interest for Prop Dev and Com & Investment Real estate search interest.  
Model: 
  1. So, maybe external shock does something to jack prices up. 
  2. Price momentum encourages punters to buy (and quickly sell) houses. 
  3. You see a jump in search interest for a few terms and you see a rise in houses sold.
  4. Feeds into itself, higher prices, more buyers. 
  5. Eventually, possible buyers are exhausted, and # of houses sold drops off. This is slightly preceded by a drop off in search interest for prop dev, com&investment and other terms. 
  6. Following this, house prices fall. feeding into drop in drop in search interest into real estate. 



Phoenix AZ

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • 52W MA # of houses sold
  • listings
  • prop development

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Inspections and apprasials 
  • com and investment real estate
  • agency searches
Interesting:
  • regoinal Unemployment inverse with CS housing prices
  • regional GDP followed right on top of housing prices

Los Angeles CA

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • agency interest
  • 52W-MA # of houses sold
  • listings preceded at first, then followed CS prices until bump up between summer-2008 to summer 2009

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • inspections and apprasials
  • com and investment real estate
Interesting:
  • GDP-per-capita followed behind housing prices
  • Unemployment inversely related to CS housing prices. 

San Diego CA

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com and Investment Real eastate - but not perfectly. Seems a long-term down trend in Com&Invst searches. 
  • Property Dev (similar pattern to Com&Invest above)
  • 52W-MA # of houses sold
  • Listings

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Interesting:
  • Agency interest follows CS Prices perfectly. 
  • Peak in GDP-per-capita follows by a year peak in CS Housing. Huge drop in GPD/cap at trough of CS housing. 
  • Unemployment inverse of CS Housing
  • Spike in #of houses sold corresponds to huge drop in GDP/cap

San Francisco

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • 52W-MA # of houses sold. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings - but listings keeps dropping after CS housing prices have steadied off. 
  • Prop Dev, Overall Real-Estate, Time-Share, Agency, Com & Invest sort of follow-perfectly, or slightly precede CS Housing Index. But seems part of long term trend. 
Interesting:
  • No Summer 2008 bump in listings searches. But there is a bump in 52W-MA # of houses sold. 
  • Unemployment again inverse of CS Housing index
  • Peak in GDP-per-capita follows by a year peak in CS Housing. Huge drop in GPD/cap at trough of CS housing. 

Denver

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com & Investment Real estate slightly precedes CS. But seems part of long term trend. 

Interesting:
  • A very different city. Didn't have the same type of bubble. 
  • 52W-MA # of houses sold follows right on top of CS Housing. 
  • Listings weakly follows CS Housing index
  • Agency searches follow on top of CS Housing. 
  • Insp & Apprasals follows slightly CS Housing index. 
  • Unemployment inverse of CS Housing. 

Washington DC

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • agency (until Jan 2011, huge drop in agency searches, but no such drop yet in prices)
  • Com&Invest precede drop, but seems part of long term trend. 
    Similar with prop development
  • 52W-MA # of Houses sold - definitively precedes prices. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings follow right on top of CS Housign prices. 

Interesting:
  • Inseps & Appraisals follow CS housing index right on top
  • Aprt&Rentals follows CS housing price. 
  • GDP/cap rises up following CD housing prices, but drop isn't so big as in other cities. 

Miami FL

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings, very clear preceding trend. Bump in Listings Jul09 to peak at Jul10, then down (weird)
  • Com & Invest precedes. But might be long term trend. Similar for Prop Development. Similar for agency. 
  • 52W-MA # of houses sold precedes CS index perfectly, until Jan09, then a big jump up in #of houses sold, while CS Housing stays sideways. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Inspections and Appraisals right on top. 
Interesting:
  • Apt & Rentals kind of follow CS. Big Bump at Jul09 to peak at Fall10, then down to trough    at Fall 11. 
  • GDP/cap follow CS housing index. 
  • Unemployment, against inverse of CS index.

Tampa Bay

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com & Investment definitely precedes, but might be part of long term trend. Similar but more strong for Property Development. 
  • 52w-MA # of houses sold definitely precedes CS index trends. But after Jan09 #s trend up, while CS index trends sideways. 
    • Listings definitively precedes. But: Interestingly there's a trough in listings interest at Summer09, peak in Summer 10, followed by another decline. All while CS housing trends down slightly. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency. Right on top of, to slighlty preceding it. 
  • Inspt & Appraisals similar to above. 
Interesting:
  • GDP/cap follow CS index. 
  • TimeShare & Vaca trending up this whole time!
  • Unemployment inverse of housing prices. 

Atlanta

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings peak, turn and decline strongly precede CS housing dynamics. After July 2009, listings interest follows housing prices closely (doesn't strongly precede it anymore)
  • 52w-MA # of Houses sold right on top, to slighlty preceding CS housing. 
    Interesting, spring 2011, #houses sold shoots up, but CS Housing shoots down, breaking the consistent pattern before that time. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency Interest, Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend. 
  • Inspections & Appraisals somewhat precedes CS housing. sometimes preceding dynamics, sometimes coincident. 
Interesting:
  • Unemployment is somewhat inversely related to CS housing. Not as good as for other cities though. 
  • GDP per capital right on top of CS Housing. 


Chicago

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings peak, turn and decline strongly precede CS housing dynamics. After July 2009, listings interest follows housing prices closely (doesn't strongly precede it anymore)
  • 52w-MA # of Houses sold right on top, to slighlty preceding CS housing. 
    There's a Jump up between fall 2009 and summer 2010 in #s, not matched by CS housing. 
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:
  • Agency Interest, Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend. 
Interesting:
  • Unemployment is somewhat inversely related to CS housing. Not as good as for other cities though. 
  • GDP per capital right on top of CS Housing. 


Boston 

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • nothing yet!

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency Interest, Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend. 
  • Listings moves coincident wtih CS housing
Interesting:
  • Umeployment inverse with CS. 
  • GDP/cap doesn't really move with CS hosuing index at all. 
  • I don't have any #of Houses Sold data for Boston -zillow doesn't have it....

Detroit 

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • At first, #of Houses Sold drop precedes CS housing drop, but then houses sold jumpts up about 2007-2009 while CS housing continues a steep drop, and levels off. I suspect this has to do with the extraordinary foreclosures in Detroit, with houses going for dollars, and the city demolishing homes to build farmland. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend. 
Interesting:
  • GDP/cap data follows CS housing closely. 
  • Unemployment level and steady until July08, while prices fall hard. Unemployment jumps up hard after winter09, when CS housing have leveled off. 


Minneapolis

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Number of houses sold strongly precede CS housing. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Listings slightly precedes moves in CS Housing.  
  • Agency Interest, Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend. 
Interesting:
  • Umeployment inverse with CS. 
  • GDP/cap doesn't really move with CS hosuing index at all. 


Charlette

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • # of houses sold
  • Listings

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency
  • Com & Investment and  Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
Interesting:
  • Charlette had a very late peak
  • GDP/cap follow CS housing index. 
  • Unemployment, against inverse of CS index.


Las Vegas

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com & Investment dynamcis stronlgy precedes drop CS Housing.
  • #of Houses sold solidly precedes. 
  • Listings strongly preceds. Except there is a big jump between summer09 to summer 2010 in Listings searches that coincident with a jump in CS Housing. The index is flat that time. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency interest follow CS prices very closely. 
Interesting:
  • GDP/cap doesn't really follow CS housing index. 
  • Unemployment pretty inverse. 


New York

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Number of houses sold strongly precedes dynamcis in CS housing index dynamics. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Agency and Property Development interest  (but not  Com & Investment!) drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
  • Com & Investment stays flat until summer08 (when housing prices are in free fall), then follows CS housing. 
Interesting:
  • Unemployment somewhat inverse of CS housing. 
  • GDP/cap follows CS housing, but stays high. 
  • Listings is weird, and off CS housing. Kinda coincident with CS Housing. 


Cleveland

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Com & Investment seems to strongly precede move in CS Housing. But decline in  Com & Investment might be long term trend. 

Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:

  • Prop Dev follows nearly one-for-one CS housing. 
  • Agency interest follow cs housing prices. 
Interesting:
  • Listings is oddly off. Run up and peak in listings follow CS. Jump in Summery 09to summery2010 that isn't coincident with CS housing too. weird. 
  • Unemployment is inverse with CS housing
  • GDP.cap follows CS housing index. 
  • #of Houses sold FOLLOWS CS housing index. 



Portland

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Interesting:




Dallas

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Interesting:



Seattle

Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:


Interesting:






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