For Each Case-Shiller City:- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Interest (Google IfS)
Google Correlate & US Real Estate Interest - One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Listings Interest (Google IfS)
Google Correlate and US Listings Interest - One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Property Development Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Agency Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Apartments & Rentals Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Ratio of "Real-Estate Listing Interest" to "
Real-Estate Apartments & Rentals Interest " (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Commercial & Investment Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Inspections & Appraisals Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Time-Share & Vacation Property Interest (Google IfS)
- One-Year Moving Average of Real-Estate Property Management Interest (Google IfS)
- Annual GDP-per-Capita (BEA Regional)
- Monthly Unemployment Rate (BLS Regional)
- One-Year Moving Average of Monthly Number of Houses Sold (Zillow)
Listings Interest & # Of Houses Sold - in general, either google real-estate listings interest or #of Houses solds dynamics tends to precede dynamics in CS housing price index. But sometimes listings interest moves precede #of houses sold, and sometimes #of houses sold moves precede listings interest. Cities in which Google Listings Interest Precedes moves in #of Houses Sold - Dallas
- Charlette (for a while, then they move one-for-one -- follows very closely)
- Atlanta
Cities in which #of Houses Sold Precedes moves in Google Listings Interest
- Tampa (only slightly preceding)
- Miami (only slightly preceding)
- Seattle
- Portland
- Las Vegas
- Minneapolis
- Boston
- Chicago
- Washington DC
- San Francisco (but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
- San Deigo
(but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
- Los Angeles
(but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
- Phoenix
(but when houses sold picks up and levels off past summer 2008, listings keeps heading down)
Summer 2008 to Summer 2009 Search Bump - Many cities had a bump-up in Real-Estate listings not linked to CS house prices. Something happen then? a governemnt program to sell houses? --this seems to be correlated with "52W-MW #of houses sold" --Google search seems to precede # of houses sold by some months. Cities wtih this bump:
Odd Sequencing - lack of interest into Prop Dev, Com & Investment (and a few others) precede drops in housing prices. But likely, rises in housing prices will precede rises in Interest for Prop Dev and Com & Investment Real estate search interest. Model: - So, maybe external shock does something to jack prices up.
- Price momentum encourages punters to buy (and quickly sell) houses.
- You see a jump in search interest for a few terms and you see a rise in houses sold.
- Feeds into itself, higher prices, more buyers.
- Eventually, possible buyers are exhausted, and # of houses sold drops off. This is slightly preceded by a drop off in search interest for prop dev, com&investment and other terms.
- Following this, house prices fall. feeding into drop in drop in search interest into real estate.
Phoenix AZ
Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- 52W MA # of houses sold
- listings
- prop development
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Inspections and apprasials
- com and investment real estate
- agency searches
Interesting: - regoinal Unemployment inverse with CS housing prices
- regional GDP followed right on top of housing prices
Los Angeles CAStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- agency interest
- 52W-MA # of houses sold
- listings preceded at first, then followed CS prices until bump up between summer-2008 to summer 2009
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- inspections and apprasials
- com and investment real estate
Interesting: - GDP-per-capita followed behind housing prices
- Unemployment inversely related to CS housing prices.
San Diego CAStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com and Investment Real eastate - but not perfectly. Seems a long-term down trend in Com&Invst searches.
- Property Dev (similar pattern to Com&Invest above)
- 52W-MA # of houses sold
- Listings
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Interesting: - Agency interest follows CS Prices perfectly.
- Peak in GDP-per-capita follows by a year peak in CS Housing. Huge drop in GPD/cap at trough of CS housing.
- Unemployment inverse of CS Housing
- Spike in #of houses sold corresponds to huge drop in GDP/cap
San FranciscoStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings - but listings keeps dropping after CS housing prices have steadied off.
- Prop Dev, Overall Real-Estate, Time-Share, Agency, Com & Invest sort of follow-perfectly, or slightly precede CS Housing Index. But seems part of long term trend.
Interesting: - No Summer 2008 bump in listings searches. But there is a bump in 52W-MA # of houses sold.
- Unemployment again inverse of CS Housing index
- Peak in GDP-per-capita follows by a year peak in CS Housing. Huge drop in GPD/cap at trough of CS housing.
DenverStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com & Investment Real estate slightly precedes CS. But seems part of long term trend.
Interesting: - A very different city. Didn't have the same type of bubble.
- 52W-MA # of houses sold follows right on top of CS Housing.
- Listings weakly follows CS Housing index
- Agency searches follow on top of CS Housing.
- Insp & Apprasals follows slightly CS Housing index.
- Unemployment inverse of CS Housing.
Washington DCStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- agency (until Jan 2011, huge drop in agency searches, but no such drop yet in prices)
- Com&Invest precede drop, but seems part of long term trend.
Similar with prop development - 52W-MA # of Houses sold - definitively precedes prices.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings follow right on top of CS Housign prices.
Interesting: - Inseps & Appraisals follow CS housing index right on top
- Aprt&Rentals follows CS housing price.
- GDP/cap rises up following CD housing prices, but drop isn't so big as in other cities.
Miami FLStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings, very clear preceding trend. Bump in Listings Jul09 to peak at Jul10, then down (weird)
- Com & Invest precedes. But might be long term trend. Similar for Prop Development. Similar for agency.
- 52W-MA # of houses sold precedes CS index perfectly, until Jan09, then a big jump up in #of houses sold, while CS Housing stays sideways.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Inspections and Appraisals right on top.
Interesting: - Apt & Rentals kind of follow CS. Big Bump at Jul09 to peak at Fall10, then down to trough at Fall 11.
- GDP/cap follow CS housing index.
- Unemployment, against inverse of CS index.
Tampa BayStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com & Investment definitely precedes, but might be part of long term trend. Similar but more strong for Property Development.
- 52w-MA # of houses sold definitely precedes CS index trends. But after Jan09 #s trend up, while CS index trends sideways.
- Listings definitively precedes. But: Interestingly there's a trough in listings interest at Summer09, peak in Summer 10, followed by another decline. All while CS housing trends down slightly.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency. Right on top of, to slighlty preceding it.
- Inspt & Appraisals similar to above.
Interesting: - GDP/cap follow CS index.
- TimeShare & Vaca trending up this whole time!
- Unemployment inverse of housing prices.
AtlantaStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings peak, turn and decline strongly precede CS housing dynamics. After July 2009, listings interest follows housing prices closely (doesn't strongly precede it anymore)
- 52w-MA # of Houses sold right on top, to slighlty preceding CS housing.
Interesting, spring 2011, #houses sold shoots up, but CS Housing shoots down, breaking the consistent pattern before that time.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency Interest, Com & Investment and
Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
- Inspections & Appraisals somewhat precedes CS housing. sometimes preceding dynamics, sometimes coincident.
Interesting: - Unemployment is somewhat inversely related to CS housing. Not as good as for other cities though.
- GDP per capital right on top of CS Housing.
ChicagoStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings peak, turn and decline strongly precede CS housing dynamics. After July 2009, listings interest follows housing prices closely (doesn't strongly precede it anymore)
- 52w-MA # of Houses sold right on top, to slighlty preceding CS housing.
There's a Jump up between fall 2009 and summer 2010 in #s, not matched by CS housing. Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency Interest, Com & Investment and Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
Interesting: - Unemployment is somewhat inversely related to CS housing. Not as good as for other cities though.
- GDP per capital right on top of CS Housing.
Boston Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency Interest, Com & Investment and Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
- Listings moves coincident wtih CS housing
Interesting: - Umeployment inverse with CS.
- GDP/cap doesn't really move with CS hosuing index at all.
- I don't have any #of Houses Sold data for Boston -zillow doesn't have it....
Detroit Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- At first, #of Houses Sold drop precedes CS housing drop, but then houses sold jumpts up about 2007-2009 while CS housing continues a steep drop, and levels off. I suspect this has to do with the extraordinary foreclosures in Detroit, with houses going for dollars, and the city demolishing homes to build farmland.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com & Investment and Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
Interesting: - GDP/cap data follows CS housing closely.
- Unemployment level and steady until July08, while prices fall hard. Unemployment jumps up hard after winter09, when CS housing have leveled off.
MinneapolisStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Number of houses sold strongly precede CS housing.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Listings slightly precedes moves in CS Housing.
- Agency Interest, Com & Investment and Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
Interesting: - Umeployment inverse with CS.
- GDP/cap doesn't really move with CS hosuing index at all.
CharletteStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency
- Com & Investment and Property Development interest drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
Interesting: - Charlette had a very late peak
- GDP/cap follow CS housing index.
- Unemployment, against inverse of CS index.
Las VegasStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com & Investment dynamcis stronlgy precedes drop CS Housing.
- #of Houses sold solidly precedes.
- Listings strongly preceds. Except there is a big jump between summer09 to summer 2010 in Listings searches that coincident with a jump in CS Housing. The index is flat that time.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency interest follow CS prices very closely.
Interesting: - GDP/cap doesn't really follow CS housing index.
- Unemployment pretty inverse.
New YorkStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Number of houses sold strongly precedes dynamcis in CS housing index dynamics.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Agency and Property Development interest
(but not Com & Investment!) drop definitely precedes decline in CS housing index, but might be part of long term trend.
- Com & Investment stays flat until summer08 (when housing prices are in free fall), then follows CS housing.
Interesting: - Unemployment somewhat inverse of CS housing.
- GDP/cap follows CS housing, but stays high.
- Listings is weird, and off CS housing. Kinda coincident with CS Housing.
ClevelandStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Com & Investment seems to strongly precede move in CS Housing. But decline in
Com & Investment might be long term trend.
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:- Prop Dev follows nearly one-for-one CS housing.
- Agency interest follow cs housing prices.
Interesting: - Listings is oddly off. Run up and peak in listings follow CS. Jump in Summery 09to summery2010 that isn't coincident with CS housing too. weird.
- Unemployment is inverse with CS housing
- GDP.cap follows CS housing index.
- #of Houses sold FOLLOWS CS housing index.
PortlandStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Interesting:
DallasStrongly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Interesting:
Seattle
Strongly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Weakly Precede Peak Drop-off:
Interesting:
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