Nobel Prize in Economics Pool

    On Monday October 11th, the Swedes will announce
    the winner of the 2010 Nobel Prize for Economics.

    While I know that we're all working diligently toward 
    winning it soon - few of us may ever hope to every
    win the honor. 

    However, we all do have a respectable chance of 
    winning the honor of choosing this year's Nobel
    Prize winners. 



 How to Enter 



 Game Rules 

    Minimum Bid of $5    

  Feel free to guess that No One Guesses Correct.


 Payout 

All collected bets are divided between the winners of the pool, less 10% for the coordinators. 

If there is one winner of the Nobel Prize, the pool will be divided among all entrants who guessed correctly - each receiving a share in proportion to his-or-her share of the total correct bets. 

If there are more than one winner of the Nobel Prize this year, then 1 / {the number of Nobel Winners the pool guessed} of the pool will be distributed consistent with the single Nobel Prize winner noted above. 
~ To clarify, if participants guess one-or-more winner but not others -- the pool will be divided among those who guessed at least part of this year's winners. In this case, no part of the pool will go to people who guess "No One Guesses Correct"

If no one guesses any of this year's winners, then the pool will be divided among all entrants who choose correctly - each receiving a share in proportion to his-or-her share of the total correct bets.  






Recent Nobel Odds

    EconJobMarketRumors Forum on the Subject 

    Mankiw Blog for 2009 

    Thomson-Reuters Best Guess

    Harvard's 2009 Pool  

  




Here’s A Simple Example

Let’s say Ernst Fehr the Winner of the 2009 Nobel Prize,

And let's say we had the following bets, 


Participants (11)

           Their Guess

 Their Bets

Al

Ernst Fehr

          $20

Bob

Barro

          $10

Curtis

William D. Nordhaus

             $20

Dale

Nacy Stokey

             $40

Eugene

Matthew J. Rabin

             $ 8

Franky

Jordi Gali

             $17

Gail

Mark L. Gertler

             $20

Ida

Martin L. Weitzman

             $20

Justine

Hal Varian

             $20

Kelly

John B. Taylor

          $50 

Louis

Ernst Fehr

           $100

 

total pool:

       $   325

 

 

That means Al and Louis are our winners

Al ($20) and Louis ($100) take back their original bets

 

Here’s an how their winnings are disbursed:

For Disbursement

    $205

Al's Bet

    $20 

Al's Winnings

    $34.17

Al Walks Away With

    $54.17

 Less 10%

    $20

Louis' Bet

    $100

Louis' Winnings

$170.83

Louis Walks Away With

$270.83

 

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